Which ISPs will LEO Compete With Most?

Low earth orbit satellite constellations such as Spacelink will allow satellite broadband provides to serve 3.5 million subscribers in 2021, growing at an eight-percent compound annual growth rate to reach 5.2 million users in 2026, according to ABI Research.

To keep that in perspective, in 2021 there are about 4.93 billion regular internet users, using 1.2 billion fixed connections and upwards of seven billion mobile internet subscriptions, supporting mobile phone users, PCs and internet of things devices.

The point is that, as important as LEO constellations might be, they will remain a niche supplier of internet access services. By 2026, says ABI Research, LEO service revenue might reach US$4.1 billion.

On the other hand, LEO constellations stand to take market share from existing satellite services and low-speed fixed network service. Starlink appears often to be a better value than geosynchronous satellite service can provide.

LEO services might also limit uptake of fixed wireless in some areas, mostly rural. On the other hand, some rural fixed wireless services (incumbent wireless internet service provider or new mobile alternatives) likewise could limit LEO service uptake.

LEO services generally will not compete with high-capacity fiber to home or cable modem services.

It may turn out that LEO constellations are most often directly competitive with existing satellite services and fixed wireless.

In 2020 fixed network internet access in the United States alone generated more than $100 billion in annual revenue in 2013, by some accounts. By other accounts consumer access spending amounted to that much in 2013, without including business purchases.

Business access contributes at least $115 billion annually.

For that reason, other estimates suggest internet access sold to businesses and consumers generates $200 billion annually in service revenues.

The point is that LEO constellations are probably going to be the driver of satellite internet access revenues in the future. But it will still be a niche within the internet access business.

Low earth orbit satellite constellations such as Starlink promise higher bandwidth, lower latency internet access that eventually might cover every part of the earth’s surface. With Starlink’s early commercial launch, how does the service stack up against other alternatives–fixed and wireless–in terms of value?

Starlink users in the United States and Canada have seen 50.5 Mbps download speed, 14 Mbps upload speed, and 52.5 ms latency, reports Speedcheck. Latency performance is better by an order of magnitude, according to Speedcheck.

Compared to existing geosynchronous satellite offers, Starlink beats HughesNet for maximum downlink speed and trails Viasat. But value is a combination of performance and price.

The Starlink price is arguably lower than HughesNet at 25 Mbps and Viasat at its top speed as well. But Starlink does not cap usage, as do Viasat and HughesNet.

source: Speedcheck

Starlink also might be considered a reasonable value choice when compared to 4G fixed wireless access supplied by Verizon, but a bit less reasonable where Starlink competes against 5G fixed wireless.

Both fixed wireless versions cost less than Starlink and do not require a satellite dish. But both fixed wireless options by Verizon also supply less bandwidth.

All the services offer unlimited usage. But Starlink offers more downlink and uplink bandwidth. Latency performance is comparable to 4G but less than 5G. At the moment, Starlink and 5G fixed wireless do not overlap much in terms of coverage, while Starlink’s footprint covers southern Canada and the northern United States.

Verizon 5G fixed wireless is only available in large urban areas of the U.S. Northeast.

source: Speedcheck

As is typically the case, Starlink will not compete well with fiber to home or cable modem services running at speeds up to a gigabit per second.

Satellite remains a niche. “Because of the higher relative cost of bandwidth transmitted via satellite versus terrestrial technologies, satellite is currently primarily used in situations where fiber optic cables and other high-capacity technologies are not financially viable due to low population densities and large distances between high-capacity networks and last-mile networks,” the Asian Development Bank rightly notes.

source: Asian Development Bank

Low earth orbit satellite constellations such as Spacelink will allow satellite broadband provides to serve 3.5 million subscribers in 2021, growing at an eight-percent compound annual growth rate to reach 5.2 million users in 2026, according to ABI Research.

To keep that in perspective, in 2021 there are about 4.93 billion regular internet users, using 1.2 billion fixed connections and upwards of seven billion mobile internet subscriptions, supporting mobile phone users, PCs and internet of things devices.

The point is that, as important as LEO constellations might be, they will remain a niche supplier of internet access services. By 2026, says ABI Research, LEO service revenue might reach US$4.1 billion. In 2020 fixed network internet access in the United States alone generated more than $100 billion in annual revenue in 2013, by some accounts.