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The cloud computing “wars” are “entering a new phase,” with good implications for and bad implications for Oracle, SAP and other traditional IT vendors, including Cisco, JP Morgan analysts Mark Murphy, Doug Anmuth, Sterling Auty, Rod Hall, and Philip Cusick said in a research note.

The authors base their work on a survey they conducted of 207 chief information officers at companies with a budget of $600 million or more annually, making it in their view a unique window into the preferences and intentions of “large Enterprises.”

One of the main takeaways is that use of the public cloud is set to rise dramatically. CIOs report that 16.2 percent of workloads are currently running in the public cloud, and that in five years 41.3 percent of workloads will run in a public cloud. That represents nearly a tripling of cloud workloads .

This suggests at least a 20 percent compound annual growth rate for public cloud workloads over the next five years.

The analysts said budget pressures have large firms focusing technology spending on cloud services.

The accelerated move to the cloud, and in particular the rapid rise of Amazon’s AWS cloud service among large corporations, signals a “changing of the guard” in enterprise IT, suggesting that “threats to traditional, on-premise IT infrastructure vendors are serious,” the report said.

It said Microsoft still holds a commanding lead in the IT market for large businesses, but AWS, which has long been popular with smaller firms, is making significant inroads.

The findings are based on a survey of 207 CIOs with an average annual IT budget per firm of $600 million, together representing some $126 billion in enterprise IT spending every year.

IT budgets at these firms are set to grow in 2016  by only 2.8 percent, compared to more typical annual growth rates of three percent to four percent.

The largest firms, with annual IT budgets of more than $2 billion, plan to hike spending by less than one percent.

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